Machine learning-based tsunami inundation prediction derived from offshore observations.

The world's largest and densest tsunami observing system gives us the leverage to develop a method for a real-time tsunami inundation prediction based on machine learning. Our method utilizes 150 offshore stations encompassing the Japan Trench to simultaneously predict tsunami inundation at seven coastal cities stretching ~100 km along the southern Sanriku coast. We trained the model using 3093 hypothetical tsunami scenarios from the megathrust (Mw 8.0-9.1) and nearby outer-rise (Mw 7.0-8.7) earthquakes. Then, the model was tested against 480 unseen scenarios and three near-field historical tsunami events. The proposed machine learning-based model can achieve comparable accuracy to the physics-based model with ~99% computational cost reduction, thus facilitates a rapid prediction and an efficient uncertainty quantification. Additionally, the direct use of offshore observations can increase the forecast lead time and eliminate the uncertainties typically associated with a tsunami source estimate required by the conventional modeling approach.

Two-step movement of tsunami boulders unveiled by modified viscous remanent magnetization and radiocarbon dating.

Massive boulders in landslide and tsunami deposits are prominent geomorphic features in various landscapes. Tracking their movement history is important for reconstructing past geologic dynamics; however, the reworking movements of massive boulders remain unresolved. The boulder field on the Ishigaki Island was formed by repeated tsunamis. Although the individual movement histories of boulders contribute to retrodict the history of different magnitude tsunamis, their radiocarbon ages only correspond to the tsunamis that detached boulders from the reef. Viscous remanent magnetization dating methods have been applied in reworking movements. These methods reveal signals associated with remanent magnetization that gradually grew since the reworking event, which helps to determine the passage of time. The methods were verified by comparison to the radiocarbon ages of un-reworked boulders detached by the recent Meiwa tsunami, while the estimated ages of such two boulders based on the classical relaxation theory contradicted the radiocarbon ages. Here, we show that a method based on the stretched exponential function addressed this contradiction. The reworking movement was estimated using an additional boulder, whose, using our method, radiocarbon age indicated that an older tsunami moved it, whereas the remanent magnetization age unveiled a reworking of the boulder attributed to the Meiwa tsunami.

Preliminary Observations and Impact in Japan of the Tsunami Caused by the Tonga Volcanic Eruption on January 15, 2022.

The tsunami caused by the Tonga submarine volcanic eruption that occurred at 13:15 Japan Time (JST) on January 15, 2022, exposed a blind spot in Japan's tsunami monitoring and warning system, which was established in 1952 for local tsunamis and expanded to distant tsunamis after the 1960 Chile tsunami. This paper summarizes how the warning system responded to the unprecedented tsunami, the actual evacuation process, and the damage it caused in Japan. Initially, the tsunami from the volcanic eruption was expected to arrive at approximately midnight with amplitudes of less than 20 cm. However, a series of short waves arrived at approximately 21:00, a few hours earlier than expected. The early arrival of these sea waves coincided with a rapid increase in atmospheric pressure; then, the short-period component was predominant, and the wave height was amplified while forming wave groups. After a 1.2 m tsunami was observed in Amami City in southern Japan at 23:55 JST, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued a tsunami warning/advisory. The tsunami continued, and all advisories were cleared at 14:00 JST on January 16. Information about this tsunami and the response to it are summarized here, including the characteristics and issues of the actual tsunami evacuation situation in each region. There were no casualties, but the issues that emerged included difficulty evacuating on a winter night and traffic congestion due to evacuation by car and under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the coastal area, damage to fishing boats and aquaculture facilities was reported due to the flow of the tsunami. In addition, damage to aquaculture facilities, including those producing oysters, scallops, seaweed and other marine products, decreased the supply of marine products, and the economic impact is likely to increase in the future.

Experimental evidence of pathogenic role of IgG autoantibodies in IgA nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: IgA nephropathy is thought to be an autoimmune disease wherein galactose-deficient IgA1 (Gd-IgA1) is recognized by IgG autoantibodies, resulting in formation and renal accumulation of nephritogenic immune complexes. Although this hypothesis is supported by recent findings that, in renal immunodeposits of IgA nephropathy patients, IgG is enriched for Gd-IgA1-specific autoantibodies, experimental proof is still lacking. METHODS: IgG isolated from sera of IgA nephropathy patients or produced as a recombinant IgG (rIgG) was mixed with human Gd-IgA1 to form immune complexes. IgG from healthy individuals served as a control. Nude and SCID mice were injected with human IgG and Gd-IgA1, in immune complexes or individually, and their presence in kidneys was ascertained by immunofluorescence. Pathologic changes in the glomeruli were evaluated by quantitative morphometry and exploratory transcriptomic profiling was performed by RNA-Seq. RESULTS: Immunodeficient mice injected with Gd-IgA1 mixed with IgG autoantibodies from patients with IgA nephropathy, but not Gd-IgA1 mixed with IgG from healthy individuals, displayed IgA, IgG, and mouse complement C3 glomerular deposits and mesangioproliferative glomerular injury with hematuria and proteinuria. Un-complexed Gd-IgA1 or IgG did not induce pathological changes. Moreover, Gd-IgA1-rIgG immune complexes injected into immunodeficient mice induced histopathological changes characteristic of human disease. Exploratory transcriptome profiling of mouse kidney tissues indicated that these immune complexes altered gene expression of multiple pathways, in concordance with the changes observed in kidney biopsies of patients with IgA nephropathy. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first in vivo evidence for a pathogenic role of IgG autoantibodies specific for Gd-IgA1 in the pathogenesis of IgA nephropathy.

The 22 December 2018 tsunami from flank collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano during eruption.

On 22 December 2018, a devastating tsunami struck Sunda Strait, Indonesia without warning, leaving 437 dead and thousands injured along the western Java and southern Sumatra coastlines. Synthetic aperture radar and broadband seismic observations demonstrate that a small, <~0.2 km3 landslide on the southwestern flank of the actively erupting volcano Anak Krakatau generated the tsunami. The landslide did not produce strong short-period seismic waves; thus, precursory ground shaking did not provide a tsunami warning. The source of long-period ground motions during the landslide can be represented as a 12° upward-dipping single-force directed northeastward, with peak magnitude of ~6.1 × 1011 N and quasi-sinusoidal time duration of ~70 s. Rapid quantification of a landslide source process by long-period seismic wave inversions for moment-tensor and single-force parameterizations using regional seismic data available within ~8 min can provide a basis for future fast tsunami warnings, as is also the case for tsunami earthquakes.

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan.

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [Mw (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non-double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of Mzx, Mzy, and M{tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved.

Geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in Japan.

Great (M∼8) earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around Japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions. Assuming a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals, probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee. However, recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant (M∼9) earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes. Along the Kuril Trench off Hokkaido, limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years, but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years. Along the Japan Trench off northern Honshu, recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits. Along the Sagami Trough near Tokyo, two types of Kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized, but studies show that the recent three Kanto earthquakes had different source extents. Along the Nankai Trough off western Japan, recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature, but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable. Such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model for the long-term forecast, and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees.

The kinetics of glomerular deposition of nephritogenic IgA.

Whether IgA nephropathy is attributable to mesangial IgA is unclear as there is no correlation between intensity of deposits and extent of glomerular injury and no clear mechanism explaining how these mesangial deposits induce hematuria and subsequent proteinuria. This hinders the development of a specific therapy. Thus, precise events during deposition still remain clinical challenge to clarify. Since no study assessed induction of IgA nephropathy by nephritogenic IgA, we analyzed sequential events involving nephritogenic IgA from IgA nephropathy-prone mice by real-time imaging systems. Immunofluorescence and electron microscopy showed that serum IgA from susceptible mice had strong affinity to mesangial, subepithelial, and subendothelial lesions, with effacement/actin aggregation in podocytes and arcade formation in endothelial cells. The deposits disappeared 24-h after single IgA injection. The data were supported by a fluorescence molecular tomography system and real-time and 3D in vivo imaging. In vivo imaging showed that IgA from the susceptible mice began depositing along the glomerular capillary from 1 min and accumulated until 2-h on the first stick in a focal and segmental manner. The findings indicate that glomerular IgA depositions in IgAN may be expressed under the balance between deposition and clearance. Since nephritogenic IgA showed mesangial as well as focal and segmental deposition along the capillary with acute cellular activation, all glomerular cellular elements are a plausible target for injury such as hematuria.

Serum under-O-glycosylated IgA1 level is not correlated with glomerular IgA deposition based upon heterogeneity in the composition of immune complexes in IgA nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: Although serum under-O-glycosylated IgA1 in IgA nephropathy (IgAN) patients may deposit more preferentially in glomeruli than heavily-O-glycosylated IgA1, the relationship between the glomerular IgA deposition level and the O-glycan profiles of serum IgA1 remains obscure. METHODS: Serum total under-O-glycosylated IgA1 levels were quantified in 32 IgAN patients by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with Helix aspersa (HAA) lectin. Serum under-O-glycosylated polymeric IgA1 (pIgA1) was selectively measured by an original method using mouse Fcα/µ receptor (mFcα/µR) transfectant and flow cytometry (pIgA1 trap). The percentage area of IgA deposition in the whole glomeruli (Area-IgA) was quantified by image analysis on the immunofluorescence of biopsy specimens. Correlations were assessed between the Area-IgA and data from HAA-ELISA or pIgA1 trap. The relationships between clinical parameters and data from HAA-ELISA or pIgA1 trap were analyzed by data mining approach. RESULTS: While the under-O-glycosylated IgA1 levels in IgAN patients were significantly higher than those in healthy controls when measured (p<0.05), there was no significant difference in under-O-glycosylated pIgA1. There was neither a correlation observed between the data from HAA-ELISA and pIgA1 trap (r2=0.09) in the IgAN patients (r2=0.005) nor was there a linear correlation between Area-IgA and data from HAA-ELISA or the pIgA1 trap (r2=0.005, 0.03, respectively). Contour plots of clinical parameters versus data from HAA-ELISA and the pIgA1 trap revealed that patients with a high score in each clinical parameter concentrated in specific areas, showing that patients with specific O-glycan profiles of IgA1 have similar clinical parameters. A decision tree analysis suggested that dominant immune complexes in glomeruli were consisted of: 1) IgA1-IgG and complements, 2) pIgA1 and complements, and 3) monomeric IgA1-IgA or aggregated monomeric IgA1. CONCLUSIONS: Serum under-O-glycosylated IgA1 levels are not correlated with glomerular IgA deposition based upon heterogeneity in the composition of glomerular immune complexes in IgAN patients.

Acceleration of crescent formation by L1 retrotransposon in mouse BSA-induced nephritis.

BACKGROUND: While crescentic glomerulonephritis (GN) is frequently associated with a rapid clinical course and poor prognosis, its pathogenesis has not been elucidated. Bovine serum albumin -induced nephritis (BSA-N), an established mouse model of crescentic GN, is a favorable model for investigation of chronologic gene expression because it is characterized by synchronized progression of crescentic GN. METHODS: Specific genes expressed in glomeruli of crescentic GN were screened using representational difference analysis before and after crescent formation. The obtained LINE-1 (L1) elements were suppressed and the methylation status of promoter sequences was analyzed. RESULTS: The endogenous reverse transcriptase (RT) of L1 retrotransposon was identified from glomeruli with crescents. L1 retrotransposon was strongly expressed at sites of crescents and tubulo-interstitial areas adjacent to crescents. The marked glomerular crescent formation and renal dysfunction observed in this model significantly reduced on treatment with the non-nucleoside RT inhibitor, efavirenz (EFV) (P<.01). The L1 promoter sequences in mice with crescents were more frequently hypomethylated than those in mice without crescents. Furthermore, the sequences were not affected by EFV treatment. MAPK 13 and c-MYC were strongly expressed in mice with crescents, but their expression decreased on EFV treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that increased L1 expression in glomeruli of crescentic GN and downregulation of RT activity in L1 decreased crescent formation. Preferential expression of L1 retrotransposon appears to be related to cell proliferative signals. Finally, our findings provide new insights into the epigenetic factors responsible for crescent formation.

Reevaluation of the mucosa-bone marrow axis in IgA nephropathy with animal models.

Impaired immune regulation along the 'mucosa-bone marrow axis' has been postulated to play an important role in the pathogenesis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN). Animal models have allowed us to study such changes in detail. Recently, we established several useful animal models, including IgAN-prone mice. Using these animal models, our group is approaching the underlying mechanisms by which bone marrow and mucosal cell interrelate and finally induce this disease. Accumulating evidence from these approaches suggests that there is dysregulation of innate and cellular immunity in IgAN resulting in changes in the mucosal immune system. These changes appear to be closely linked to disruption of mucosal tolerance, resulting in abnormal priming and dissemination of cells to sites such as the bone marrow where they are responsible for synthesis of nephritogenic IgA. Our clinical studies further support these ideas and indicate that the tonsils may be a major mucosal priming site in human IgAN. In addition, our findings also suggest clinical application of nephritogenic IgA (IgA1) as a biological marker and possible future treatment strategies that focus on manipulating the priming and dissemination of these memory cells in order to prevent the appearance of nephritogenic IgA (IgA1) in the systemic compartment.

Three cases of PR3-ANCA positive subacute endocarditis caused by attenuated bacteria (Propionibacterium, Gemella, and Bartonella) complicated with kidney injury.

Subacute bacterial endocarditis (SBE) associated with antiproteinase-3 antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (PR3-ANCA) has previously been reported in 10 cases of Streptococcus viridans and in 1 case of Escherichia faecalis infection. Most of these patients had hypocomplementemia and were positive for several autoantibodies. The infections in most of these patients showed good responses to antibiotic treatment. We report three patients with ANCA-positive SBE, which was induced by attenuated slow-growing intracellular pathogens; these patients had severe complications, such as acute kidney injury, cerebral embolism, and aortic valve destruction.

The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004.

The two largest earthquakes of the past 40 years ruptured a 1600-kilometer-long portion of the fault boundary between the Indo-Australian and southeastern Eurasian plates on 26 December 2004 [seismic moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.1 to 9.3] and 28 March 2005 (Mw = 8.6). The first event generated a tsunami that caused more than 283,000 deaths. Fault slip of up to 15 meters occurred near Banda Aceh, Sumatra, but to the north, along the Nicobar and Andaman Islands, rapid slip was much smaller. Tsunami and geodetic observations indicate that additional slow slip occurred in the north over a time scale of 50 minutes or longer.

Transient uplift after a 17th-century earthquake along the Kuril subduction zone.

In eastern Hokkaido, 60 to 80 kilometers above a subducting oceanic plate, tidal mudflats changed into freshwater forests during the first decades after a 17th-century tsunami. The mudflats gradually rose by a meter, as judged from fossil diatom assemblages. Both the tsunami and the ensuing uplift exceeded any in the region's 200 years of written history, and both resulted from a shallow plate-boundary earthquake of unusually large size along the Kuril subduction zone. This earthquake probably induced more creep farther down the plate boundary than did any of the region's historical events.

Unusually large earthquakes inferred from tsunami deposits along the Kuril trench.

The Pacific plate converges with northeastern Eurasia at a rate of 8-9 m per century along the Kamchatka, Kuril and Japan trenches. Along the southern Kuril trench, which faces the Japanese island of Hokkaido, this fast subduction has recurrently generated earthquakes with magnitudes of up to approximately 8 over the past two centuries. These historical events, on rupture segments 100-200 km long, have been considered characteristic of Hokkaido's plate-boundary earthquakes. But here we use deposits of prehistoric tsunamis to infer the infrequent occurrence of larger earthquakes generated from longer ruptures. Many of these tsunami deposits form sheets of sand that extend kilometres inland from the deposits of historical tsunamis. Stratigraphic series of extensive sand sheets, intercalated with dated volcanic-ash layers, show that such unusually large tsunamis occurred about every 500 years on average over the past 2,000-7,000 years, most recently approximately 350 years ago. Numerical simulations of these tsunamis are best explained by earthquakes that individually rupture multiple segments along the southern Kuril trench. We infer that such multi-segment earthquakes persistently recur among a larger number of single-segment events.